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Deal Or No Deal: The Banker's Secret 
by Ryan J Bell 

View The Archives Of Past Articles

“Deal or No Deal” a popular game show on NBC has captured audiences with its large prize amounts, and unorthodox game show structure. Game show fans have become accustomed to trivia, dating and stunt –based games. “Deal or No Deal” presents a new format for game shows, but what is the secret behind the banker’s offers?
Everything Deal Or No Deal
I love watching this show because the whole concept of the banker’s offers tempting the players to abandon the game and walk away with some amount of dollars really appeals to me. I play the game in my head, telling the players which offers they should accept, and which they should walk away from. There is an easy way to figure out which offers are good (and which are bad) through a simple financial principle.

Expected value is the principle, and it is one of the basic principles of finance. It allows you to assign a value to something now, knowing that the future is uncertain.

Deal or No Deal: How to decide
The real point of the game is to approximate, at any given point, what the expected value of the suitcase in your hand is.

Step 1: What is the potential gain? At any point in the game, you can determine the potential gain. The highest values left on the board are the maximum amount you can gain from playing. At the start, this would be the $100,000 through $1 million prizes. As the game progresses, and cases are eliminated, the potential gain adjusts downward.

Step 2: What is the probability of that gain? There are 26 spots on the game board. The probability of you having the highest-value case in your possession is simply the number of “high-value prizes” (greater than $100,000) left on the board divided by the number of cases remaining.

For example: you’re playing the game, and there are 9 cases left (plus the one in your hand). The board has the $100,000, $400,000 and $750,000 prizes left, with 7 other smaller prizes also available. The probability that you have the case with one of these three prizes is 10%.

0.10 * $100,000 = $10,000
0.10 * $400,000 = $40,000
0.10 * $750,000 = $75,000

Summing these values, the approximate expected value of your case is $125,000. If the banker offers you anything less, you should say, “No deal!”

So how does the show keep from losing money on every player? The banker almost never offers anything over the expected value when there are still large amounts on the board. Players compare a paltry $150,000 to the possible million-dollar prize and they can’t resist.

So now you know how to play. And how to ‘beat the banker!’ 

Everything Deal Or No Deal

Ryan is the owner/webmaster of http://FinanceMaze.com a website which offers tips and advice on personal finance, as well as investing recommendations and examples of finance (such as this one).

Article Source: http://www.upublish.info

Crossword
Today's Brain Teaser Today's Trivia
1. An explorer undertakes to cross a desert with the help of porters. The length of the trail corresponds to 6 days walk. But the explorer, like each porter, can carry only 4 days food. How many porters does the explorer need? In fact, can he cross at all? 

2. A worker is to perform work for you for seven straight days. In return for his work, you will pay him 1/7th of a bar of gold per day. The worker requires a daily payment of 1/7th of the bar of gold. What and where are the fewest number of cuts to the bar of gold that will allow you to pay him 1/7th each day?
Solution
What was the name of the all-consuming force threatening to annihilate Fantasia in "The NeverEnding Story" (1984)?

1. Nothingness
2. Inversion
3. Darkness
4. Negativity
Solution
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